Table of Contents
What Is Moral Luck?
Moral luck is one of the most perplexing and humbling concepts in modern ethics. It refers to the idea that the morality of an individual’s actions can depend not only on their intentions but also on factors outside their control. In other words, people are often judged morally for things influenced by sheer chance.
We like to believe moral responsibility depends solely on choice and intention. However, philosophers like Thomas Nagel and Bernard Williams have argued that this belief is not borne out in practice. When we evaluate people morally, we frequently allow outcomes, personalities, and contexts—all shaped by luck—to influence our judgment.
This article explores the types of moral luck, famous thought experiments, and what moral luck means for ethics, law, and everyday life.
I. What Makes Luck Moral?
To understand moral luck, start with this idea: if two people do the same thing with the same intention, they should be judged the same. But what if one fails and the other succeeds due to luck? Our intuitions about morality start to split.
Moral luck occurs when the morality of an action is affected by circumstances beyond the agent’s control. This challenges the principle that “ought implies can”—the idea that someone can only be held morally responsible for what they could reasonably control.
II. Four Types of Moral Luck
A. Resultant Luck
This is luck in the outcome of an action. Two drunk drivers make the same choice; one causes a fatal accident, the other gets home safely. Legally and morally, we treat them differently, even though their intentions and behavior were identical.
Key point: Outcomes shape our moral judgment, often more than intentions.
B. Circumstantial Luck
This refers to the situations people find themselves in. A person in Nazi Germany who hides Jews is seen as heroic. A similar person in peaceful Sweden may never face such a moral test.
Key point: People are judged based on challenges they never chose to face or avoid.
C. Constitutive Luck
This is luck in who you are: your temperament, genetics, and upbringing. A naturally empathetic person may make morally better choices without trying harder.
Key point: Moral character is shaped partly by factors outside one’s control.
D. Causal Luck
This is the broadest form. It questions whether any choice is truly free if all decisions are the result of preceding causes—genes, environment, chance events.
Key point: If all actions are caused, can we really be held morally responsible?
III. Thought Experiments and Examples
The Lucky Assassin
Two assassins plan to kill. One succeeds. The other is foiled by a bird. Are they equally culpable? Resultant luck says no, but our legal and moral systems say yes.
Drunk Driving
One person drives drunk and arrives home safely. Another does the same and hits a pedestrian. The latter faces greater punishment, even if the choices were identical.
Nazi Germany vs. Sweden
A courageous person under a repressive regime may risk their life to do good. Another with similar character in a free society may never be tested. Who is more moral?
These cases show how deeply luck can infiltrate moral evaluation.
IV. Philosophical Responses
A. Kantian Ethics: Luck Shouldn’t Matter
Kant held that only intentions matter morally. A good will is good regardless of outcome. Moral luck is irrelevant. But this view often feels disconnected from lived experience.
B. Nagel and Williams: The Tragic Conflict
Nagel believed that moral luck creates a paradox of moral responsibility. We are not comfortable admitting how much luck influences morality, yet we can’t ignore it.
C. Compatibilist Approaches
Some try to balance both perspectives: intentions matter most, but outcomes and context are relevant for practical judgments and consequences.
V. Implications for Law and Society
Legal Responsibility
Our legal systems recognize resultant luck. Attempted murder is punished less than murder. But this raises ethical questions about fairness when intentions were the same.
Guilt and Shame
People often feel guilt over things they couldn’t control. Recognizing moral luck might promote self-compassion and reduce unnecessary shame.
Public Judgments
Celebrities and leaders are judged harshly for things caused by factors they couldn’t foresee. Moral luck reminds us to judge more cautiously.
Forgiveness and Empathy
Understanding that moral actions are shaped by luck can lead to more empathy. We might recognize that not all moral failings stem from vice, and not all success from virtue.
VI. Why Moral Luck Matters
Moral luck shakes our ethical foundations. If outcomes, character, and context are shaped by luck, then judgment should be approached with humility. It encourages:
- Rethinking harsh judgments of others
- Being more forgiving of ourselves
- Designing fairer legal and social systems
It doesn’t mean we should abandon responsibility. Instead, it means we should be more aware of the complexity behind moral decisions and outcomes.
VII. Conclusion: Moral Luck and Moral Maturity
We like to imagine we are the sole authors of our morality. Moral luck reminds us this is only partly true. It introduces a mature ethics grounded not just in judgment but in compassion.
To take moral luck seriously is not to give up on morality—it is to deepen it. It is to recognize that responsibility is real, but always entangled with fate. The wise approach to ethics, then, may be one of justice mixed with humility.
